Australia Macro+: "The Monthly" – Reversal Beneath the Surface

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Australia Macro+: "The Monthly" – Reversal Beneath the Surface

Foundation

July 1, 2026 11:46 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Macro+ | Asia Pacific Chris Nicol

Equity Strategist

"The Monthly" – Reversal Chris.Nicol@morganstanley.comAntony Conte +61 3 9256-8909

Antony.Conte@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1544

Beneath the Surface Chris Read

Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

Commodity weakness unwound Resources' leadership. Earnings Isabel Black

growth remains supportive, but a moderating earnings pulse and EquityIsabel.Black@morganstanley.comStrategist +61 2 9775-2519

rising post-Budget housing risks are making leadership

increasingly selective.

The ASX 200 posted incremental gains in June, rising +0.67% TR to 8,778.7,

extending May’s resilience despite sticky inflation, hawkish RBA communication and

periods of global equity volatility. Beneath the positive headline return, performance

was uneven as weaker commodity prices (gold, -11.7%; iron ore -6.3%; and Brent - Exhibit 1 : Ind x Fin 12mf P/E now at 21.6x

20.9%) triggered a partial unwind of the market leadership that had dominated the

ASX 200 Resources Ind x Fin Financials

previous 12 months. Losses were concentrated in diversified miners and gold, 35

weighing on broader market returns, while Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, 30

Financials and Consumer Staples provided the primary support. 21.6x

17.8x

July 1, 2026 - Post Budget Impacts: From 1 July 2026, capital gains tax (CGT) and 15 12.4x

negative gearing changes, which have now passed into law, will increase in focus for

investors. While some changes have future implementation dates, sentiment and 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25