India Autos & Shared Mobility: June 2026 – Retail Growth Trajectory Remains Strong

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India Autos & Shared Mobility: June 2026 – Retail Growth Trajectory Remains Strong

Update

July 1, 2026 06:23 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+MIndia Autos & Shared Mobility | Asia Pacific Binay Singh

Equity Analyst

June 2026 – Retail Growth Binay.Singh@morganstanley.comSushrut Ghalsashi, CFA +91 22 6118-1158

Research Associate

Sushrut.Ghalsashi@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-1073

Trajectory Remains Strong

Retail sales growth trajectory across segments remained

healthy. Falling commodity costs and healthy volume growth

could support margin improvement from F2Q27 onward. MSIL, India Autos & Shared Mobility

M&M and TVS remain our preferred OWs. Asia Pacific

Industry View Attractive

Key Takeaways

PV and 2W retail sales rose 26% and 21% YoY, respectively. MHCV and tractor

retail sales rose 10% and 26% YoY, respectively, in June-26.

EV penetration improved across segments – EV share was 10.6% in 2Ws (9.3% in

May) and 7.4% in PVs (6.6% in May).

Commodity costs – spot rates are now 7-8% lower than the F1Q26 average.

Wholesales for the month: Positive surprises – MSIL, M&M, Tata PV, AL and

Eicher; negative surprises – Hero. HMI affected by supply issues.

June quarter SAAR is showing upside risks to our F2027 estimates for most OEMs

– Exhibit 1

Retail sales trend in June 2026 remained healthy across PVs, 2Ws, CVs and

Tractors: June 2026 retail PV and 2W retail sales increased 26% and 21% YoY,

respectively. MSIL continues to see robust demand, even in its small car portfolio. Its

wholesales were affected by a seven-day maintenance shut down, but it has guided

for an improvement in production from July. Inventory stands at ~75k units, i.e., at 14

days of sales. HMI's wholesales were affect by a fire incident at a Hyundai Mobis

plant.