J.P. Morgan India FTM 1 Jul 26 KPIT Technologies; India Pharma; India Quick Commerce; India Real Estate; Adani Ports & SEZ and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan India FTM 1 Jul 26 KPIT Technologies; India Pharma; India Quick Commerce; India Real Estate; Adani Ports & SEZ and More

the last 3 months. April/May-26 combined

sales value increased 13% y/y (-1% in the same period last year); while annualised sales value in May-26 (12-month rolling)

increased ~10% y/y, the highest in the last 17 months. Housing sales in terms of area (in msf) and units sold are also exhibiting

improving trends from a year ago, albeit on a lower base (Table 2/3). High-ticket housing sales remain the key growth driver,

while affordable and mid-segment housing continue to contract. Our base case is for these trends to continue, however April-26

mortgage data from the housing finance companies suggests a pick-up in low and mid-segment housing, which is an added

tailwind (Table 5). We forecast overall housing sales value to grow between 8-10% this year. We hold OW on Oberoi, DLF and

GPL.

Adani Ports & SEZ (Atul Tiwari) (ADSEZ IN, OW)

Stake Sale In Vizhinjam Port: Financially Value Accretive & Strategically Sound

APSEZ has entered into an agreement with MSC Group's terminal arm TiL for a 49% stake in Vizhinjam Port at an EV of US

$2.85bn (current equity of US$1.1bn plus pending capex of US$1.75bn). TiL will invest US$1.397bn in two tranches — US

$539mn for equity and US$858mn towards expansion completion by December 2028, which will scale capacity 3.5x from

1.6mn TEUs to 5.7mn TEUs. The port, commissioned late-2024, has already handled 2mn TEUs in 18 months with FY26

recurring EBITDA of ~Rs4bn, expected to reach ~Rs18bn by FY31E — implying ~15x EV/EBITDA on fully evolved earnings,

which appears value accretive. Critically, the MSC partnership locks in cargo volume visibility for expanded capacity, removing

demand uncertainty.