Q2 Preview: Beyond TRIDENT Missing the Point

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q2 Preview: Beyond TRIDENT Missing the Point

Quick Note

June 30, 2026 NovoCure (NVCR)

Rating: Q2 Preview: Beyond TRIDENT Missing the PointNEUTRAL

Price:

$15.48 Heading into NVCR’s 2Q26 earnings print, we revisit our outlook following the

12-Month Price Target: negative TRIDENT readout, with investor focus shifting back toward underlying

$18.00 trends in the core GBM franchise and early commercial execution of Optune

Pax in pancreatic cancer and Optune Lua in NSCLC. Recapping 1Q26, revenue

of $174.1MM benefited from approximately $3.5MM of one-time items related

Analysts to improved reimbursement approvals in Germany and contract performance

David Nierengarten, Ph.D. improvements in France. Excluding these benefits, underlying performance was

(415) 274-6862 largely in line with expectations. Active Optune Gio patients increased 9% y/yDavid.Nierengarten@wedbush.com

to 4,543, driven primarily by continued international expansion, while U.S. activeDennis Pak

(415) 263-6647 patients grew a more modest 4% y/y to 2,250. Management continues to expect

Dennis.Pak@wedbush.com low-to-mid single-digit active patient growth in mature markets, partially offset by

Martin Fan, Ph.D. higher growth in newer geographies such as Spain and Czechia. With TRIDENT no

(213) 688-3404 longer a source of incremental growth, we believe the growth thesis increasingly

Martin.Fan@wedbush.com hinges on execution outside the legacy GBM franchise.

We model 2Q26 revenue of $174.8MM (+0.4% q/q) and FY26 revenue of

$707.3MM (+7.9% y/y), toward the upper end of management's $690-710MM

guidance. Our FY26 forecast assumes approximately $7MM of Optune Pax

revenue and $15MM of Optune Lua revenue, in-line with management's expected

$15-25MM contribution from the two recently launched indications. While early