Commodity Catch-Up

研报英文原文证据摘录

Commodity Catch-Up

Exhibit 1 - Summary Model Estimate Changes

2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 2027 Price Target

Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised

ADM $1.53 $1.45 $1.17 $1.33 $1.20 $1.28 $4.61 $4.77 $5.35 $5.71 $73 $77

CALM $0.75 $0.12 $8.11 $7.50 $3.80 $2.75 $80 $75

JBS (EBITDA) $1,310 $1,143 $1,405 $1,251 $1,270 $1,122 $4,902 $4,433 $5,348 $5,170

PPC (EBITDA) $455 $369 $507 $428 $413 $349 $1,683 $1,454 $1,900 $1,723 $38 $32

Source: BMO Capital Markets

Corn Prices Sink on Heavy Spec Fund Selling, Favorable Weather

US corn prices (futures) sink into June reflecting speculators exiting long positions initiated during

Iran War, favorable early growing season weather, and well-balanced global supply/demand. US

corn (futures) prices increased 2% m/m and 3% y/y in May to $4.61/bu supported by strong demand

(ethanol and corn exports) and Iran War implications (speculators buying with concerns of fertilizer

shortages, carryover from higher energy prices). That said, corn prices slid ~$0.30/bu through the back

half of the month and remained under pressure into June, dropping to ~$4.15/bu most recently as large

speculative funds liquidated long corn (and soy) positions as momentum to an end to the war emerged

and early season growing conditions have been favorable. The 2026 outlook for US corn prices remains

complex given volatility in geopolitics, US farmer preference to planting corn (acreage shift was not as

significant as expected), expectations for large crops globally, and ongoing strong demand from ethanol

(43% of 2026/27 MY use) and exports (17% of use). But with geopolitical dynamics settling, upside

corn price risk likely will be tied to US and global yield outlooks as typical weather market dynamics