GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Commodity Catch-Up
Research evidence excerpt
Commodity Catch-Up
Exhibit 1 - Summary Model Estimate Changes
2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 2027 Price Target
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
ADM $1.53 $1.45 $1.17 $1.33 $1.20 $1.28 $4.61 $4.77 $5.35 $5.71 $73 $77
CALM $0.75 $0.12 $8.11 $7.50 $3.80 $2.75 $80 $75
JBS (EBITDA) $1,310 $1,143 $1,405 $1,251 $1,270 $1,122 $4,902 $4,433 $5,348 $5,170
PPC (EBITDA) $455 $369 $507 $428 $413 $349 $1,683 $1,454 $1,900 $1,723 $38 $32
Source: BMO Capital Markets
Corn Prices Sink on Heavy Spec Fund Selling, Favorable Weather
US corn prices (futures) sink into June reflecting speculators exiting long positions initiated during
Iran War, favorable early growing season weather, and well-balanced global supply/demand. US
corn (futures) prices increased 2% m/m and 3% y/y in May to $4.61/bu supported by strong demand
(ethanol and corn exports) and Iran War implications (speculators buying with concerns of fertilizer
shortages, carryover from higher energy prices). That said, corn prices slid ~$0.30/bu through the back
half of the month and remained under pressure into June, dropping to ~$4.15/bu most recently as large
speculative funds liquidated long corn (and soy) positions as momentum to an end to the war emerged
and early season growing conditions have been favorable. The 2026 outlook for US corn prices remains
complex given volatility in geopolitics, US farmer preference to planting corn (acreage shift was not as
significant as expected), expectations for large crops globally, and ongoing strong demand from ethanol
(43% of 2026/27 MY use) and exports (17% of use). But with geopolitical dynamics settling, upside
corn price risk likely will be tied to US and global yield outlooks as typical weather market dynamics
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