J.P. Morgan ASEAN FTM 29 Jun 26 ASEAN Data Watch; Singapore Hospitality REITS - May-26 RevPAR tracking drop in visitor arrivals; EM Money Trail - Are EM flows turning a corner?

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan ASEAN FTM 29 Jun 26 ASEAN Data Watch; Singapore Hospitality REITS - May-26 RevPAR tracking drop in visitor arrivals; EM Money Trail - Are EM flows turning a corner?

Asia Pacific Equity Research

ASEAN First to Market 29 June 2026

Top Stories

ASEAN (Charnon Boonnuch)

• BOT bucked the trend with a dovish hold this week, hinting at limited concerns about a weaker THB

• Thailand’s current account outlook is deteriorating, due to fuel imports and sustained investment demand

• Elsewhere, we have penciled in a 25bp hike by BNM in 4Q26, reflecting a stronger growth outlook

• We have raised our Singapore 2026 GDP growth forecast further to 4.6% amid solid tech momentum...

• … but soft May core inflation supports our view for no further MAS tightening this year

Singapore Hospitality REITs (Mervin Song, CFA)

Declines in May-26 RevPAR tracking drop in visitor arrivals

May-26 RevPAR declined by 5.0% to S$199.9 owing to the May-26 Singapore tourist arrivals and visitor days falling by 9.7%

and 9.2% YoY (link). The weakness was largely driven by the lower-tier hotels, which is not surprising given that the target

customers are typically more price sensitive. The main drag was a 4.2pts decline in May-26 occupancy to 75.4%, partially

mitigated by a 0.4% YoY increase in ADR to S$265.1. YTD RevPAR remains on an uptrend owing to a strong 1Q26, with 5M26

RevPAR up 2.5% YoY (114% of 2019 average). With near-term RevPAR weakness, uncertainty over how quickly elevated

airfares will normalize and when flight capacity will be restored balanced against expected interest cost savings, we maintain

our N ratings on CDREIT, CLAS and FEHT.

EM Money Trail (Rajiv Batra/Emy Shayo Cherman/Anindita Gandhi), Global

Are EM flows turning a corner?