Container Shipping: Hormuz Disruption Impact Could Fade; Stay Guarded

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Container Shipping: Hormuz Disruption Impact Could Fade; Stay Guarded

Idea

June 26, 2026 08:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MContainer Shipping | Asia Pacific Qianlei Fan, CFA

Equity Analyst

Hormuz Disruption Impact Qianlei.Fan@morganstanley.comEvan Chen +852 2239-1875

Research Associate

Evan.Chen@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7317

Could Fade; Stay Guarded Tenny Song

Tenny.Song@morganstanley.com +852 3963-1737

We factor in a stronger-than-expected 2Q26 but remain guarded

on the outlook. Suez canal transit normalization remains a

potential major overhang. We prefer container shipping the least

among our coverage, relative to tanker and dry bulk shipping.

Hong Kong/China Transportation &

Hormuz blockage impact could gradually fade in view of a potential peace deal in

Infrastructure

the Middle East: Post the May Golden week holiday, we have seen a stronger-than- Asia Pacific

expected container shipping spot market, supported by: 1) supply disruptions from Industry View In-Line

the Strait of Hormuz blockage in terms of capacity erosion, re-routing, and port

Exhibit 1 : What's changedcongestion; 2) slower vessel speeds amid high bunker prices; and 3) rush orders

PT Share Implied

amid the global supply chain hit from the energy crisis. Most of these factors could Company Ticker Currency Rating New Old Chg % price Upside

CSH-H 1919.HK HKD UW 10.90 10.30 5.8% 13.20 -17.4%

fade if Hormuz reopens. CSH-AOOIL 601919.SS0316.HK RmbHKD UWUW 100.0012.40 12.1097.00 2.5%3.1% 120.2013.82 -10.3%-16.8%

Supply risks remain: The orderbook/fleet ratio has reached 38% for all container Source:the closeMorganon JuneStanley25, 2026.Research (E) estimates. Factset; Share prices as of

ships, and 51% for 8000+TEU vessels, as of Jun-26. We expect effective capacity to

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