JBS NV Missing Catalysts. Downward Earnings Revisions Still Likely. LT Valuation Remains Supportive

研报英文原文证据摘录

JBS NV Missing Catalysts. Downward Earnings Revisions Still Likely. LT Valuation Remains Supportive

intenance stoppages Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 1.47 1.21 -17.3%

impacted margins across different business units. But in general terms, our Adj. EBITDA - 26E ($ mn) 5,763 5,373 -6.8%

Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 6,307 6,285 -0.4%

margin trackers point to a soft and probably weaker-than-expected recovery

heading into the seasonal summer rebound. (2) U.S. beef margins had a Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

surprisingly weak month of May, which we attribute to softer demand and dry Adj. EPS ($)

pastures. (3) Chicken prices remain overall soft, especially for the big-bird 2025A 2026E 2027E

cuts. We believe current margin levels imply important downside risk to PPC Q1 0.60 0.25A

Q2 0.61 0.23

consensus estimates as no relevant adjustment in the layer flock is seen on the Q3 0.61 0.39

radar. Q4 0.52 0.35

• Missing tangible catalysts. We think the only event that could be meaningful FY 2.34 1.21 1.77

to the stock is the potential reopening of the US border to Mexican cattle. There Style Exposure

could be over 3mn heads crossing over time when that happens, helping to

alleviate prices and driving margins higher. The chances of that happening are

increasing as the number of New World Screwworm (NWS) cases reduce in the

north border of Mexico (while the US government increases efforts to contain

the spread in TX). Nonetheless, we do not have visibility of whether this is a

short-term event or a mid-term event.

• The long-term value is still in place. At ~$12/share, our SOTP analysis

indicates that JBS is pricing in zero value for the U.S. beef business (i.e.

margins never recover) and PPC margins remain capped at 8% (below the

historical average of 9.2%).