Takeaways From 2026 Farm to Market Conference

研报英文原文证据摘录

Takeaways From 2026 Farm to Market Conference

Exhibit 1 - Summary Estimate Model Changes (in EBITDA)

2Q26 3Q26 4Q26 2026 2027 Price Target

Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised

GPRE $72 $89 $74 $75 $56 $59 $254 $294 $252 $265 $15 $16

JBS $1,416 $1,310 $1,493 $1,405 $1,286 $1,270 $5,198 $4,902 $5,417 $5,348 $20 $18

Source: BMO Capital Markets

ADM (Market Perform; $73)

Durability of ethanol margins the key swing factor to outpacing our $5.50-6.00 EPS run-rate

thoughts based on strength of US crush curve. We hosted President of Carb Solutions, Chris Cuddy,

VP Treasurer & IR, Greg Rodetis, and Director, Investor Relations Kate Walsh for a group dinner. ADM

sounded confident on business momentum including benefits of RVO on US crush margins, demand-

driven improvement in ethanol margins (with support from tax policy), and improvements in Nutrition.

We remain Market Perform rated as shares are pricing in a bullish scenario, though we acknowledge

EPS run-rate could outpace $6 if ethanol margin strength persists, particularly in the event of Iran war

ceasefire.

• ADM appeared more confident in durability of ethanol margins relative to prior periods

of strong industry margins given balanced supply/demand. Current margin environment is

benefiting from Iran war to some degree given higher gas prices and support for ethanol exports.

However, current domestic demand combined with export volume that appears on pace for 2.4

billion gallons this year puts supply/demand dynamics in solid balance. ADM was conservative in

its initial 45Z assumptions and there may be more upside than currently embedded in guidance,

but magnitude now is more modest (i.e., not going to double). E15 would be great for the