Kuehne+Nagel "Applying a machine learning approach for evaluating..."

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kuehne+Nagel "Applying a machine learning approach for evaluating..."

eration in shipping volumes. Still, we back in some

12/27E 8.80 9.01 2 8.68

sequential demand improvements for 2H26E and thus modestly increase our short-term 12/28E 9.79 10.02 2 9.41

revenue and earnings expectations.

Sebastian Vogel, CFA

Details about our quantitative methodology Analyst

sebastian.vogel@ubs.com

Our approach uses time-series and panel-data econometric techniques to estimate and

+41-44 239 90 45

validate how macroeconomic conditions influence firm-level growth prospects. The

macroeconomic environment is modelled using domain expertise, while the link to Tommaso Aquilante

Strategistcompany growth is rigorously tested through cross-validation and backtesting. We

tommaso.aquilante@ubs.com

employ a LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) model to identify +44-20-7567 1205

the most relevant predictors and enhance forecast accuracy. Macroeconomic variables

are either obtained from external sources or simulated for the forecast period. The Jamie Dorricott

Strategist

outcome is a set of empirically grounded organic growth forecasts that serve as a

jamie.dorricott@ubs.com

benchmark for evaluating short-term company performance. +44-20-7567 0790

Valuation: DCF-derived PT of CHF179/share

We reflect our revised forecasts (FY26-30E) in our DCF valuation for K+N. We maintain

our terminal sales growth rate/WACC of 2.5%/7.3%, respectively. In combination, this

results in a new DCF-derived PT for K+N of CHF179 (previously CHF177).

Highlights (CHFm) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 26,649 27,356 28,118 28,203 29,010 30,027 31,151 32,379

EBIT (UBS) 1,861 1,676 1,380 1,375 1,513 1,676 1,809 1,854

Net earnings (UBS) 1,389 1,212 986 980 1,080 1,200 1,303 1,340