Kuehne und Nagel International AG: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kuehne und Nagel International AG: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Kuehne und Nagel International AG (KNIN.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Air volume growth (%) 7.0 1.8 3.5 3.0

Air GP/unit (CHF/100kg) 78 82 79 80

Sea volume growth (%) 0.3 (0.7) 2.3 2.3

Sea GP/unit (CHF per TEU) 483 444 439 442

Group conversion ratio (%) 14.1 16.6 16.4 17.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Air and Sea freight volumes RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Air and Sea freight GP/unit Supply chain bottlenecks persisting for longer

Group level cost control/reduction Faster restructuring in supply chain Sales / 26,378

Mix improvement division driving better than expected Revenue 24,130 29,235

profitability (SFr, mn) 25,687

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Accretive M&A

Higher freight rates

2,397 APAC, ex Japan, 0-10% Mainland Cost efficiency linked to tech adoption / AI EBITDA China and India 2,241 2,518

0-10% Mainland China RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (SFr, mn) 2,396

30-40% North America Lower than expected global trade growth

50-60% Europe ex UK Erosion of GP margin in Air and Sea Freight

1,480

Deterioration in FCF and change in capital EBITSource: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 1,297 1,698

returns policy (SFr, mn)View explanation of regional hierarchies here Accelerated deterioration of freight rates 1,478

MS ALPHA MODELS

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 8.49

7.78 9.45

3/5 3 Month Inst. Owners, % Active 65.8% (SFr) 8.78

MOST Horizon

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7% 6.79the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored DPS 6.24 7.97

Quintile Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund (SFr) 6.95

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be