Podcast | Europe for the Global Investor: The Great Memory Debate

研报英文原文证据摘录

Podcast | Europe for the Global Investor: The Great Memory Debate

IdeaMValuation Methodology and Risks

ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS)

We value ASML at a P/E multiple of 32x, at the lower end of our usual cycle peak valuation

range of 30-35x. This is in line with historical peaks (30x), but we note upside potential from

significant foundry capex as well as continued rapidly rising memory prices. Applying a 32x P/E

multiple to our 51.92 FY28 EPSe gives us a PT €1660.

Risks to Upside

n Meaningful ramp-up in logic/foundry spend with nrs 2 and 3 returning to investment

mode

n Higher HBM/DRAM spend than expected

n Servicing margins expanding

n Tech sovereignty programmes crystallising

Risks to Downside

n Materially weaker end-market demand (foundry / DRAM especially)

n Strong inflation cycle and Chinese weakness driving slowdown and more order push-

outs

n Absent High NA adoption (DRAM 2028+) inhibiting multiple

BE Semiconductor Industries NV (BESI.AS)

We apply a 38x multiple to FY27 earnings power. The multiple sits above the 5-year average

P/E of 35x but within the 35-40x range we deem fair in this part of the AI (super) cycle) which

has raised valuations across the sector.

n Faster adoption of hybrid bonding in HBM memory applications

n Faster and stronger acceleration of Besi's core business

n Higher multiple due to (perceived) structural elements

n Hybrid bonding adoption more limited than expected

n Strength in core business fades

n FX headwinds pressure margins

Infineon Technologies AG (IFXGn.DE)

We apply a 50x P/E multiple to the server rack contribution as we think the structural driver

deserves a premium to the rest of the group. We continue to view the rest of the group as a

cyclical story valuing it at 24x reflecting our view that Infineon is moving through a cycle