Petronet LNG: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Petronet LNG: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Petronet- PetronetLNG (PLNG.NS)LNG (PLNG.NS)

Slow growth

PRICE TARGET Rs285.00 EQUAL-WEIGHT THESIS

gas glut has become a moreRs285: base case, sum-of-the-parts methodology. We use discounted cash flows to determine ▪Global

the value of the terminals in Kochi and Dahej and petrochemical plant. Assumptions for our balanced scenario given destruction of an

10.5% WACC include: LNG facility in Qatar. This will lead to lower

Cost of equity of 11.2% (beta of 0.9x, market risk premium of 5.2%, and risk-free rate of volumes in the near term.

6.6%) ▪Competition at West Coast: Brownfield

Cost of debt of 9.0%. investment at Dahej at one-tenth of

Target debt to equity of 0.15x. competition's investments gives PLNG

Terminal growth rate is 3% for terminals. flexibility to be the price leader. Other

aspects, such as pipeline capacity, Rs316.82

infrastructure, and tariff zoning keep us

Consensus Price Target Distribution Rs240.00 Rs400.00 optimistic. MS PT dividend yields: Even withSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪Top-quartile

significant capex, the dividend yield should

remain at ~5.0% in F28e.

RISK REWARD CHART

Consensus Rating Distribution

INR 58% Overweight

Rs405.00Rs405.00(+43.49%)Rs405.00(+43.49%)(+43.49%) 23% Equal-weight

19% Underweight

400 MS Rating

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Rs282.25Rs282.25Rs282.25 Rs285.00Rs285.00(+0.97%)Rs285.00(+0.97%)(+0.97%)

Risk Reward Themes

200 Self-help: Positive

Rs209.00Rs209.00(-25.95%)Rs209.00(-25.95%)(-25.95%) View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

JUN '25 DEC '25 JUN '26 JUN '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

BULL CASE Rs405.00 BASE CASE Rs285.00 BEAR CASE Rs209.00