Brazil Beer World Cup 2026: What to Expect Based on Previous Experiences

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Brazil Beer World Cup 2026: What to Expect Based on Previous Experiences

J P M O R G A N Latin America Equity Research

25 June 2026

Brazil Beer

World Cup 2026: What to Expect Based on Previous

Experiences

In this report, we analyze Ambev conference calls across World Cup years since LatAm Food & Beverages and

2014, with a primary focus on what prior tournaments suggest for Brazil Beer Agribusiness

volumes, mix, SG&A and earnings risk. We see that while management remains Lucas Ferreira AC

quite optimistic on the World Cup's positive impact (which definitely helps (55-11) 4950-3629

creating many different moments of consumption), we would rather take a more lucas.x.ferreira@jpmorgan.com

cautious stance - historically, the event has failed to move the needle on earnings, Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

with consensus being revised downwards in the two most recent tournaments. Larissa Perez

Beyond volume, investors should not overlook the variables that have already (55-11) 4950-6400

larissa.perez@jpmchase.com

proven capable of offsetting the catalyst: adverse weather conditions, Brazil Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

National Team's performance, and packaging mix effects can erode what appears Froylan Mendez

to be a straightforward upside story. For 2Q26, we believe volumes will be strong, (52-55) 5540-9482

but expectations are also anchored at a high-single-digit volume growth. froylan.mendez@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Morgan Grupo Financiero

The beverage industry has historically leveraged the World Cup tournaments as a

key commercial moment as the event tends to increase drinking occasions. For

Ambev, the historical evidence confirms that the World Cup can be a visible

catalyst for Brazil Beer, but the magnitude has varied by tournament: