J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 26 Jun 26 Australian REITs; PEXA and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan Australia FTM 26 Jun 26 Australian REITs; PEXA and More

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 26 June 2026

Top Stories

Australian REITs (Richard Jones, CFA)

Brisbane and Melbourne residential - the best and the worst

We recently hosted two residential property tours in the key Brisbane and Melbourne markets to gauge sales and pricing trends

post the RBA rate hikes and federal budget changes around CGT and negative gearing. We visited listed REIT residential

projects across master-planned communities, land lease, build-to-rent and build-to-sell apartments. The Brisbane residential

market remains a standout performer, with continued strong price increases yet to dampen demand driven by limited supply

and strong migration. Construction costs are a challenge, but for now price growth is at least 2x cost growth. Residential

revenue is largely locked in for the listed REITs in Queensland for FY27. The Melbourne residential market is materially softer,

but is perhaps more resilient than we expected, particularly in the land market. Melbourne is seeing elevated townhouse and

builder sales as a proportion of total sales volumes, tapping into the price conscious buyers while incentives remain prevalent

in the market. Melbourne sales rates over the remainder of 2026 will be relatively important for FY27 residential settlements,

with a shorter sale to settlement timeframe than in Brisbane.

PEXA (Tharan Jeyathasan) (PXA AU, OW)

Taxing Times

The 2026 Federal Budget introduces changes to property-related taxes which we estimate will reduce the IRR for an investor

by ~0.5-1ppt, whilst also reducing their borrowing capacity, i.e., investor participation will fall. We believe this will emerge as