Aura Minerals Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Aura Minerals Model Update

Tathiane Martins Candini AC Latin America Equity Research

(55-11) 4950-4116 25 June 2026 J P M O R G A N

tathiane.m.candini@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Aura Minerals ADR (Overweight; Price Target: $104.50)

Investment Thesis

We rate Aura Overweight. The combination of Aura’s gold exposure, growth trajectory,

disciplined capital allocation, and strong shareholder returns make it an appealing

investment, in our view. Aura Minerals is a gold and copper mining company, producing

343koz of equivalent gold (JPMe 2026) across four countries and seven mines: Aranzazu

(Mexico), Minosa (Honduras), Era Dorada (Guatemala, recently announced), Almas

(Brazil), Apoena (Brazil), Borborema (Brazil), and Serra Grande (Brazil). Since 2017, the

company has increased its production by ~129% achieving an EBITDA CAGR of 44%.

Aura’s core strategy centers on growth through M&A. The strategy combines optimizing

existing mines, extending their Life of Mine (LOM), and improving costs through

brownfield developments and the development of greenfield projects such as Almas and

Borborema.

Valuation

Our Dec 2026 price target of $104.5/sh (R$ 181.0/sh for AURA33) is based on the sum of

the parts of each mine NPV, implying a specific discount rate for each mine depending on

the exploration stage, LOM, grades, and countries where they operate. Our price target

implies a 4.3x EV/EBITDA 2026E (considering Aranzazu (Mexico), Minosa (Honduras),

Era Dorada (Guatemala, recently announced), Almas (Brazil), Apoena (Brazil), Borborema

(Brazil), and Serra Grande (Brazil)). As for AURA33, we use JPM's 2026 average FX of

R$ 5.13 and divide by 3 (accounting for the number of stocks) to determine our R$181.0/sh

price target.

Risks to Rating and Price Target