Carrefour: Carrefour H1 preview: France leads, Brazil still drags

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Carrefour: Carrefour H1 preview: France leads, Brazil still drags

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Carrefour

Carrefour H1 preview: France leads, Brazil

still drags

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 16.70 EUR | Price: 15.55 EUR

No inflection yet, recovery still uneven 23 June 2026

We expect Q2 sales to confirm a still flat trajectory, with Europe broadly resilient but Equity

facing tougher weather comparables, France improving structurally although H1 will be

blurred by Cora, Spain remaining solid, and Brazil continuing as the main earnings drag

Key Changesamid a softer macro backdrop despite an FX tailwind. This should translate into muted

Q2 organic growth with limited upside to estimate, with investors focused on Brazil’s (EUR) Previous Current

recovery and the normalisation of Cora. 2026E Rev (m) 81,820.0 81,686.4

2027E Rev (m) 83,052.9 82,833.8

Overall, we forecast H1 sales ex VAT to grow by +2.0%, with LFL at +1.2%, and 2028E Rev (m) 84,645.2 84,396.5

underlying pro forma EBIT reaching €779m, up 7.1% yoy on a restated basis for Italy and 2026E EPS 1.69 1.68

Romania. We make only modest downward revisions to our full year estimates. 2027E EPS 1.80 1.78

Modest growth, Europe offsetting Brazil 2028E EPS 1.85 1.84

Slightly positive volumes and inflation in Europe, alongside improving market share,

Xavier Le Mene >>

point to supportive fundamentals. However, topline growth should remain modest given Research Analyst

tougher comparables, as last year’s favourable weather boosted food demand and some MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 7591

non-food categories. Recent heatwaves may offer a partial offset. Poland, Brazil and xavier.le_mene@bofa.com

Argentina are likely to remain under macro pressure.

In France, Q2 trends should broadly mirror Q1 excluding fuel. The profit profile remains