Carrefour: Core execution improving, portfolio simplification becomes key

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Carrefour: Core execution improving, portfolio simplification becomes key

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Carrefour

Core execution improving, portfolio

simplification becomes key

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 16.70 EUR | Price: 16.51 EUR

Core execution improving, portfolio questions remain 24 July 2026

H1 results were broadly in line on sales and 2.9% below consensus on Rec. Op. Income, Equity

but the underlying mix was arguably better than headline numbers suggest. France,

Spain and Brazil broadly delivered, with most of the earnings miss explained by non-core

Key Changesmarkets and higher central costs. Management views 2026 as the first year of execution

of its Carrefour 2030 plan, with encouraging early signs in the core geographies. France (EUR) Previous Current

and Spain are building momentum, while Brazil remains largely a macro debate. Poland 2026E Rev (m) 81,686.4 81,730.5

and Argentina continue to dilute profitability, reinforcing the contrast between the 2027E Rev (m) 82,833.8 82,966.0

group's core and non-core assets. While management gave no indication of accelerated 2028E Rev (m) 84,396.5 84,544.3

portfolio actions, we continue to view portfolio simplification as necessary. 2027E EPS 1.78 1.80

2028E EPS 1.84 1.87

France improving, Spain leading

The three core markets broadly delivered. France maintained positive momentum, Xavier Le Mene >>

supported by price investments, improving customer metrics and stronger former Cora ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

stores. However, despite ROI growth of 14%, profitability was slightly below +44 20 7996 7591

xavier.le_mene@bofa.com

expectations, raising questions over how quickly higher volumes can translate into

operating leverage, even accounting for ongoing Cora and Match integration. Spain