Domino's Pizza Group PLC The issue is in the dough - Initiate at UW with 145p PT

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Domino's Pizza Group PLC The issue is in the dough - Initiate at UW with 145p PT

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

25 June 2026

Initiation

Domino's Pizza Group PLC Underweight

DOM.L, DOM LN

The issue is in the dough - Initiate at UW with 145p PT Price (24 Jun 26):190p

Price Target (Dec-27):145p

We initiate coverage of Domino’s Pizza Group PLC with an Underweight rating European Food Retail

ACand a Dec-27 PT of 145p, implying c25% downside. Our cautious stance reflects Borja Olcese

a combination of structural, operational and execution risks that, in our view, are (34-91) 516-1511

not fully reflected in the current valuation. With our forecasts materially below borja.olcese@jpmorgan.com

consensus, we see the risk-reward as skewed to the downside. For a comparable J.P. Morgan Securities plc

investment case, we prefer Greggs (OW). Palak Garg

(91-22) 6157-5102

Domino’s key debates include: i) structurally pressured volumes since 2022, with palak.x2.garg@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

negative/muted LFLs and support from pricing at peak (c4%); ii) highly saturated

pizza market with Domino’s already at c53% market share whilst having over- Specialist Sales contact details:

expanded; iii) execution risk within the chicken market, amidst competition from Olivia Petronilho - Specialist Sales -

well-established chicken players and a high bar for differentiation; iv) declining European Consumer

franchisee profitability, as well as, limited flexibility/negotiation leverage given (44-20) 3493-3709

franchisee concentration in the hands of a few groups; v) high management olivia.b.petronilho@jpmorgan.com

turnover with both a new CEO and CFO, along with poor track record vs guidance,

market expectations & TSR; and vi) a relatively constrained balance sheet, with