Nordic Telcos: Adopting more cautious tone into 2H26 – Downgrade Telenor to UW, upgrade Telia to EW

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Nordic Telcos: Adopting more cautious tone into 2H26 – Downgrade Telenor to UW, upgrade Telia to EW

Equity Research

23 June 2026

Nordic Telcos

Adopting more cautious tone into

2H26 – Downgrade Telenor to UW,

European Telecom Servicesupgrade Telia to EW

NEUTRAL

Nordic Telcos offer some of the best growth and ROCE Unchanged

profiles in EU Telcos, and an analysis of regulatory data European Telecom Services Maurice Patrick

shows broadly healthy trends. However, we see a temporary +44 (0)20 3134 3622

pause in 2Q26, with Norway/Finland momentum set to ease. maurice.patrick@barclays.comBarclays, UK

We downgrade Telenor to UW on Nor/Fin weakness, upgrade Maxime Delaugerre

+44 (0)20 3555 5672Telia to EW.

maxime.delaugerre@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Nordic Telcos – Solid fundamentals for many years – Sweden/Norway steady growth,

Mathieu Robilliard

Finland has entered a disruptive phase. In this detailed report we look through not only

+44 (0)20 3134 3288

recent results, but also regulatory reports, and we take a deep dive on key issues. In Sweden we mathieu.robilliard@barclays.com

see a market offering steady, albeit modest, c.+2%/year revenue growth driven mostly by fixed/ BBI, Paris

mobile price increases that are set to continue in 2026E, with positive optionality from Fixed

Ganesha Nagesha

regulation (possible lower wholesale fees), and M&A (4 to 3 consolidation). In Norway, market

+91 (0)22 6175 1712

growth is slightly stronger (c.+3%/year) and set to continue in 2026E, even if the market ganesha.nagesha@barclays.com

dynamics are set to be challenged somewhat by Fixed M&A/regulation (Telenor acquiring Barclays, UK

FibreCos, NetCo access being regulated) and mobile traffic migration from Ice/Lyse to Telia

from Telenor.