Elisa (1K) | Hold | A longer road to recovery

研报英文原文证据摘录

Elisa (1K) | Hold | A longer road to recovery

#EstimatesRevision

Release date: 16 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldElisa

Finland | Telecom services Beta Profile: MCap: EUR5.9bn

Target Price: EUR39.00 (40.00) Change in TP: -2.5 % Bloomberg: ELISA FH Reuters: ELISA.HE

Current Price: EUR34.98 Change in Sales: -0.6% 26E/-1.0% 27E Free float 90%

Up/downside: 11.5% Change in Adj EBIT: -1.5% 26E/-1.6% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 24.8

YTD abs performance -7.3% Market data: 15 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -0.8% 26E/-1.1% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 46.80/34.78

A longer road to recovery Price performance

Why this report?

Elisa’s Q2 print showed a further deterioration in Finnish mobile trends.

Management expects the benefit from higher new-sales prices to become

more visible only in Q4, implying that mobile service revenue is likely to

remain weak in Q3. We see a risk that the Finnish mobile recovery does not

gain real traction until 2027, as the higher share of fixed-term contracts

delays repricing, and new-sales prices have only recently moved above prior-

year levels. With market dynamics having changed, a return to Finland’s

former status as one of Europe’s most attractive telecom markets looks a tall

order. As we trim our 2026–28 estimates, Elisa’s medium-term targets of >4%

revenue and EBITDA CAGRs look increasingly elusive. We see limited scope for

a meaningful near-term re-rating and reiterate our Hold rating.

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Key findings Sales 2,248 2,289 2,344

Q2 review: Mobile service revenue weakened to -1.7% in Q2 from broadly flat in EBITDA adj. 829 853 881

Q1, taking telecom service revenue down 0.7%. EBITDA growth slowed to 1.5% EBIT adj. 527 548 571

Net profit adj. 391 417 436from 2.2% despite continued cost savings.