GWA Group A narrow path between cost and demand

研报英文原文证据摘录

GWA Group A narrow path between cost and demand

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

23 June 2026

GWA Group Neutral

GWA.AX, GWA AU

A narrow path between cost and demand Price (23 Jun 26):A$2.30

▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$2.55

Prior (Dec-26):A$3.00

Greenshoots have faded in 4QFY26, with the budget adding uncertainty around the

trading outlook for GWA’s Australian-centric business. Going forward, we Australia

marginally trim our assumptions around the pace of an earnings recovery given: 1) Australia Industrials

revenue/demand implications of input cost headwinds stemming from the Iran AC Lee Power

conflict; 2) a softer housing turnover outlook (albeit with increased incentive for (61-2) 9003-8725

primary residence A&A under the budget); 3) some benefit from the non- lee.power@jpmorgan.com

discretionary nature of plumbing repairs. On the cost side, the Middle East conflict Dylan Adrian

is reshaping the outlook for building material costs, with suppliers passing on (61-2) 9003-7397

higher input costs via surcharges and price hikes; industry sources point to a ~10- dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com

12% price increase across selected bathroom ware following the conflict. GWA is Nick Torelli

~60% R&R-exposed in Australia. Against this outlook, we note a number of (61-4) 6817-5219

offsets: 1) while the dampened outlook is clearly a negative, owner-occupier nick.torelli@jpmorgan.com

housing remains exempt from the tax changes, making it one of the few places J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

where CGT relief persists and rendering equity injection into one’s own home more

attractive; 2) GWA is implementing a 5% price rise effective 1 August to reflect Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

higher input costs (noting it did not raise prices in Australia in FY26); and 3) GWA’s Adj.