CMB.TECH (1K) | Buy | Near-term rate upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

CMB.TECH (1K) | Buy | Near-term rate upside

#EarningsPreview #EstimatesRevision

Release date: 23 June 2026

Company research

BuyCMB.TECH

Belgium | Transport Logistics MCap: EUR3.8bn

Target Price: EUR16.80 Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: CMBT BB Reuters: CMBT.BR

Current Price: EUR13.20 Change in Sales: 2.7% 26E/none 27E Free float 35%

Up/downside: 27.3% Change in Adj EBIT: 6.0% 26E/none 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 30.1

YTD abs performance 62.8% Market data: 22 June 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 5.3% 26E/none 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 15.06/7.04

Near-term rate upside Price performance

Why this report?

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will increase crude carrier demand and

rates, while we believe it will take at least four weeks until lost volumes have

been recovered. Capesize rates are firm, driven by increased iron ore and

bauxite volumes from Brazil and Guinea, respectively, while demand is

buoyant in the other dry bulk segments as well. The rate outlook is good for

Capesizes both in the short- and medium term, while the recent rate softness

offers an interesting entry point to a stock which trades at an unsustainable

discount to NAV. We reiterate Buy with TP (unch.) at EUR16.8 per share.

Key findings

During January-May, the seaborne dry bulk trade grew 3%, driven by the iron ore

trade, which grew 3.5% (although it fell in May), with support from increased FY to 31/12 (USD) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

Brazilian iron ore and Guinean bauxite exports (up 21%), while the grain trade Sales 1,999 1,722 1,751

grew 13%. Guinea has started to ramp up iron ore exports, a key driver in the dry EBITDA adj. 1,387 1,087 1,100

bulk trade going forward (4.8m tonnes YTD in mid-May). The fall in crude volumes EBIT adj. 933 595 606

Net profit adj.