Discounted exposure to strong markets

研报英文原文证据摘录

Discounted exposure to strong markets

Equity Research - 18 May 2026 07:31 CEST

Reason: Preview of resultsCMB.TECH

• Estimates up on higher rates

• '26e adj. EBITDA 27% above consensus

• TP of USD 18.9 (16.9) – BUY Shipping & Transport

Estimates up on higher rates Estimate changes (%)

Ahead of the Q1'26 report, we update our model with the prevailing spot 2026e 2027e 2028e

rates and new long-term rate assumptions from our tanker sector report Sales 14.0 2.7 -0.6

"We opt out at 1.5x P/NAV" as well as the forward rates in dry bulk for the EBIT 21.6 4.8 -3.2

next three months. We make minor adjustments to our rate assumptions EPS 33.3 13.6 -0.5

Source: ABG Sundal Collier

and general and administrative expenses for Q1'26, lowering adjusted

EBITDA by ~2%, to USD 306m (312m). Note that we expect the company CMBT-US/CMBT US

to book a gain on sale of ~USD 269m in Q1 and another ~USD 98m in Share price (USD) 15/5/2026 14.94

Q2. Our Q2'26e adjusted EBITDA is up 32% as rates are outperforming Target price (16.90) 18.90

expectations, to USD 447m (339m), and FY'26e EBITDA is now 20%

higher than in our previous report, now at USD 1,538m (1,276m). When

incorporating our latest rate forecasts for '27e-'28e, we now estimate MCap (USDm) 4,733

EBITDA of USD 1,354m (1,314m) and USD 1,287m (1,314m) in '27e and MCap (EURm) 4,070

'28e, respectively. No. of shares (m) 316.0

Free float (%) 29.5

'26e adj. EBITDA 27% above consensus

Our Q1'26e adj. EBITDA of USD 306m is 12% above consensus

Next event Q1 report 19 May 2026(Bloomberg, FactSet, VisibleAlpha average) of USD 274m, while our

Q2'26e adj. EBITDA of USD 447m is 29% above consensus of USD

Performance347m. For FY26, our adj. EBITDA estimate of USD 1,538m is 27% above

consensus of USD 1,215m. For FY27 and FY28, we estimate adj. EBITDA 16.00