See Healthy 2Q Orders, But Tempering 2H EBITDA & PT ($280 to $225)

研报英文原文证据摘录

See Healthy 2Q Orders, But Tempering 2H EBITDA & PT ($280 to $225)

Investment Thesis

Our Buy rating on DASH reflects several key themes: 1) We calculate TAM across restaurant and grocery delivery at ~$1.5T with

<15% currently flowing through the three leading platforms; 2) DASH is positioned to ride the secular wave with a large userDIGITAL base that it can leverage to extend into new verticals and know-how it can leverage to add new geographies; 3) With a benign

competitive backdrop in US restaurant delivery, DASH is able to both expand margins and invest into those growth initiatives; 4)

On a combo of growing user base, rising order frequency, take-rate expansion and strong incremental margins, we model to an

EBITDA CAGR of ~40%.SERVICES Upcoming Catalysts Price Performance

■ Monthly CC, site traffic and app data $300

■ Quarterly operating results (2Q26 TBD) $280

$260EQUITY $240

$220

$200

Base Case Assumptions: $225 Price Target $180

$160

Our $225 PT is based on a multiple of 20x our '27 EBITDA estimate. We derive a $140RESEARCH fair value range for the stock of $125-$285 using a 3-year scenario analysis toggling Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 revenue growth, incremental EBITDA margin & EBITDA multiple.

DASH

S&P 500 (rebased)

Source: FactSet

Upside Scenario: $285/sh Company Description

Our upside case of $285 is based on a 3-year scenario using the following assumptions: DASH operates a three-sided

marketplace connecting consumers to

■ GOV CAGR of 25% merchants and drivers (dashers). DASH

■ Incremental EBITDA margin on GOV of ~3.8% delivered nearly $60B in sales to

■ '28 EBITDA multiple of 25x merchants in 2024, paid dashers >

$18B and handled 2.6B orders for users

last year. DASH derives the majority of