Australia Materials: DataDig: Weather Watch?

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Australia Materials: DataDig: Weather Watch?

Idea

June 22, 2026 10:29 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MAustralia Materials | Asia Pacific Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

DataDig: Weather Watch? R.Anand@morganstanley.comMichael A Stancliff +61 2 9770-1136

Research Associate

Michael.Stancliff@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-9253

Charts, analysis and comparables for the global mining sector. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

NOAA has confirmed El Niño conditions and raised the probability of a very strong

Commodities Strategist

event to 63% for Nov-Jan, with some models pointing to one of the strongest on Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

record. Our commodities team highlights that risks to supply are highest for copper.

Chile could face flood, mudslide, and infrastructure risk, while Zambia faces drought

and hydropower shortages (see Metals in the Eye of El Niño). Al and zinc could face

supply risk from Yunnan hydropower availability, while lithium risk centers on Chile

brines, where heavy rainfall can dilute ponds or disrupt logistics. IO exposure looks

Australia Materials

lower, with fewer cyclones likely in Aus, offset by Brazil rail/port risk. Thermal coal Asia Pacific

could benefit from higher demand with hotter Asian weather and less reliable Industry View Attractive

hydropower from lower rainfall. Although most of BHP's FY27 attributable Cu Recent Research:

production is in Chile and Peru (~80%), we see offsets from drier weather at Copper Energy Security: Virtual ASEAN Summit 2026

SA, WAIO and QLD coal. We remain OW BHP (see our Insight note). For lithium, Feedback: Rare Earths, Power Grids and AI (22

any disruption to Chile supply would benefit PLS (EW), IGO (UW), and MIN, though Jun 2026)