LNG, VG & NEXT: Exploring Upside

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LNG, VG & NEXT: Exploring Upside

Global Idea

June 22, 2026 07:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMLNG, VG & NEXT Devin McDermott

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Exploring Upside Devin.McDermott@morganstanley.comJoe Laetsch, CFA +1 212 761-1125

Equity Analyst

Joe.Laetsch@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8804

Even with the Peace Deal MoU (memorandum of Jacqueline M Kenny

understanding), the outlook for US exporters has improved vs ResearchJacqueline.Kenny@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-2253

the pre-conflict baseline. At the same time, shares have recently Helen Lin

Research Associate

fallen below the base asset value of existing assets & locked-in Helen.Lin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0766

growth. We see an attractive risk-reward in VG & Cheniere.

Key Takeaways

Relative to pre-conflict, margins are still up sharply, oversupply risk has shifted

out, and supply diversification should support more growth for US players.

Gas inventories are below normal in key markets (EU, Japan). Rising summer

demand will make it challenging to normalize storage, even with the Strait re-

opened.

Post the pullback, we see an attractive risk-reward in bal-26 LNG prices (JKM) and

US exporters (VG & Cheniere). OW-rated VG most dislocated.

Is "Peace" Mispriced? US LNG exporters have been trending lower since the US-Iran

cease fire was first announced on April 7th, with Cheniere down ~20%, VG ~30%,

and NEXT ~10%. At this point, all three are trading below our estimate of base asset

value of the existing portfolio and locked-in growth projects (those already

commercialized and/or under construction). Even with the recently announced

Peace Deal MoU (memorandum of understanding), the outlook for US exporters has

improved relative to the pre-conflict baseline.