Innostar Service The next shining star driven by innovation; initiate at OW

研报英文原文证据摘录

Innostar Service The next shining star driven by innovation; initiate at OW

se catalysts should continue to 2025A 2026E 2027E

drive share price outperformance. Key risks include: TP’s share loss, slower chip Q1 0.46 1.02A 2.33

Q2 (0.45) 3.39 6.69

probing spec upgrade, and delay in GCS adoption. Q3 1.37 3.72 20.36

Q4 4.92 6.33 34.59

• Strong probe card equipment orders, driven by TP’s accelerated capacity FY 6.32 14.46 63.97

expansion for rising ASIC and advanced node demand. We model the

company’s probe card equipment revenue to grow 2x/3x YoY in 2026/27 and

another 2x YoY in 2028, backed by continued upward revisions of higher-end

needle assembly machine shipment orders for TP’s accelerated probe card

capacity expansion, along with the material ASP growth from equipment spec

upgrades (from single-arm to a dual-arm solution). We believe the stronger

demand will be driven by TP’s rising high-end probe card orders for new CSP

ASIC and advanced node demand from foundry customers.

• New copper pillar mass transfer business for glass core substrate TGV to

drive the next wave of multi-times growth. Innostar is engaging with a US

tier-1 networking chip vendor to enable glass core substrate adoption in its

next-gen switch ASIC, expected from late 2027/28, as it could become the sole

supplier of the copper pillars applied for the TGV metallization of glass core

substrates. With the high content and solid volume of the switch ASIC, we

model the new copper pillar business to contribute 8%/20% of revenue in

2027/28, while there could be upside from another US GPU vendor that is also

working with Innostar for its future networking chip.

• Undemanding valuation. Our Dec-27 PT of NT$4,000 is based on 25x 2028E

P/E, largely in line with probe card and glass core/TGV peers’ 2028E-based