Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - LNG: gas prices plunging on Hormuz reopening hopes

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Arctic Sector FLASH: Energy - LNG: gas prices plunging on Hormuz reopening hopes

Energy balanceconsumption,that contraction,or both. WeakdemandAsianmustLNGrespondimport datathroughsuggesta combinationthat this adjustmentof inventoryprocessdrawdowns,is ongoing.lower

Energy | Sector Flash | 18 June 2026 | 09:08

Once reopened, supply recover to pre-war level

Even if 2026 proves to be a contraction-year for LNG supply, it is worth remembering that once Hormuz

is fully reopened and Qatari and UAE export facilities have ramped back to normal operations, supply

LNG: gas prices plunging on Hormuz reopening hopes will recover to roughly pre-war levels, less the capacity permanently lost following the attack on Ras

Laffan. While this recovery could temporarily overwhelm demand, we believe such periods would be

● TTF down ~20%, turning the complete curve cheap relatively short-lived before the volumes are absorbed by the market.

● Shrinking 2026 LNG balance regardless

From ~ 20 BCM contraction to ~70 BCM expansion● Once reopened, supply recovers to pre-war level

Assuming a June reopening scenario, Qatar and the UAE together account for roughly 60 BCM of● From ~ 20 BCM contraction to ~70 BCM expansion

lost LNG supply in 2026. We estimate that around two-thirds of this volume will return in 2027, adding

TTF down ~20%, turning the complete curve cheap approximately 40 BCM to the global LNG balance. Combined with supply growth from the US and other

Since peaking on June 10, the front-month TTF gas price has fallen by roughly €10/MWh, or around producers, total LNG supply growth in 2027 could approach 70 BCM, even after accounting for the

20%, seemingly in response to an agreement between the US and Iran to cease hostilities and damaged Ras Laffan trains.