Asahi Kasei (3407): Raise PO; growth driven by Healthcare, Homes, and AI server-related materials

研报英文原文证据摘录

Asahi Kasei (3407): Raise PO; growth driven by Healthcare, Homes, and AI server-related materials

Short-term view

• We lower our OP forecasts for FY3/27 and FY3/28 due to the impact of goodwill

and intangible amortization from the Aicuris antiviral acquisition (-¥20.0bn).

Excluding this, forecasts are effectively raised, supported by strong performance in

Critical Care and Housing. We revise OP to ¥260.0bn for FY3/27 (from ¥268.0bn;

consensus ¥259.9bn) and ¥300.0bn for FY3/28 (was ¥304.0bn; consensus ¥288.9bn).

• We look for 1Q OP of ¥66.0bn, exceeding consensus of ¥61.6bn. While 1H guidance

has not been disclosed, it could be announced; in that case, we expect guidance of

around ¥120.0bn OP. This should act as a positive share price catalyst.

• Growth in Pharmaceuticals (Tarpeyo, Envarsus XR, Prevymis), AED, electronic

materials, and domestic Housing is expected to drive earnings.

• The Housing business in Japan targets affluent customers in urban areas and is

expected to remain strong, supported by robust equity markets and a continued

low-interest-rate environment. Housing orders should remain solid, driven mainly by

condominiums.

• In Electronics, increased sales of AI server-related materials (including Pimel and

glass cloth) are expected to drive earnings growth.

Medium-/long-term view

• The company is investing heavily in lithium-ion battery separators, with the key

focus on earnings contribution and the risk of impairment. A new plant in Ontario,

Canada is scheduled to start operations from 2028–29. Growth in the EV market has

slowed, and currently lower-priced separators for ESS (Energy storage systems) are

partially offsetting weakness in EV demand.

• Growth in the housing segment is another key focus. The Japan housing business