Eastroc Beverages: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Eastroc Beverages: Risk Reward Update

Update

June 19, 2026 02:27 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MEastroc Beverages | Asia Pacific Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6502

What’s Changed

Eastroc Beverages (605499.SS) From To

Price Target Rmb223.00 Rmb191.00

Bull Case Rmb271.00 Rmb233.00

Eastroc Beverages (605499.SS, 605499 CH)

Base Case Rmb223.00 Rmb191.00

Bear Case Rmb119.00 Rmb102.00 China/Hong Kong Consumer | China

Updated Components Stock Rating Overweight

EPS Industry View In-Line

Price target Rmb191.00

Investment Thesis

Shr price, close (Jun 18, 2026) Rmb120.60

Bull Base Bear Scenarios 52-Week Range Rmb252.69-120.42

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Risk Reward for Eastroc Beverages (605499.SS) has been EPS (Rmb)** 6.5 6.9 8.1 9.4

Prior EPS (Rmb)** - 7.9 9.4 10.8

updated

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

Reason for change ** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We lower our earnings forecasts for 2026e by 13%, reflecting the soft demand QTD

partly dragged down by the unfavorable weather, increased competition and forex

loss from RMB appreciation. Our 2027e and 2028e earnings forecasts are lowered

by 14% and 13%, respectively, on a lower base in 2026.

For 2Q26, we see pressures in Energy Drinks amid weaker than expected demand,

while expecting sequential improvements in ex-factory shipment growth for Water

Boost vs 1Q26, following the capacity adjustments. Other beverages should

maintain strong growth momentum. PET cost lock-in should continue to bring

tailwinds to GPM improvement to offset increased channel investment. We expect

~16% sales and earnings growth in 1H26, and ~15% sales and earnings growth for