Eastroc Beverages: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Eastroc Beverages: Risk Reward Update

Update

June 19, 2026 02:27 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MEastroc Beverages | Asia Pacific Lillian Lou

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Lillian.Lou@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6502

What’s Changed

Eastroc Beverages (9980.HK) From To

Price Target HK$227.00 HK$195.00

Bull Case HK$276.00 HK$238.00

Eastroc Beverages (9980.HK, 9980 HK)

Base Case HK$227.00 HK$195.00

Bear Case HK$121.00 HK$104.00 China/Hong Kong Consumer | China

Updated Components Stock Rating Overweight

EPS Industry View In-Line

Price target HK$195.00

Investment Thesis

Shr price, close (Jun 18, 2026) HK$115.00

Bull Base Bear Scenarios 52-Week Range HK$227.69-113.90

Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Risk Reward for Eastroc Beverages (9980.HK) has been updated EPS (Rmb)** 6.5 6.9 8.1 9.4

Prior EPS (Rmb)** - 7.9 9.4 10.8

Reason for change Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

We lower our earnings forecasts for 2026e by 13%, reflecting the soft demand QTD e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

partly dragged down by the unfavorable weather, increased competition and forex

loss from RMB appreciation. Our 2027e and 2028e earnings forecasts are lowered

by 14% and 13%, respectively, on a lower base in 2026.

For 2Q26, we see pressures in Energy Drinks amid weaker than expected demand,

while expecting sequential improvements in ex-factory shipment growth for Water

Boost vs 1Q26, following the capacity adjustments. Other beverages should

maintain strong growth momentum. PET cost lock-in should continue to bring

tailwinds to GPM improvement to offset increased channel investment. We expect

~16% sales and earnings growth in 1H26, and ~15% sales and earnings growth for

full year 2026.