J.P. Morgan GEMS FTM 19 Jun 26 Thailand Equity Strategy; EM Money Trail; China Food Delivery; SHIFT UP; Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19; Global Data Watch; Allegro and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan GEMS FTM 19 Jun 26 Thailand Equity Strategy; EM Money Trail; China Food Delivery; SHIFT UP; Promotora de Hoteles Norte 19; Global Data Watch; Allegro and More

ering our HCITY estimates following a disappointing 1Q and a materially weaker-than-expected World Cup

demand setup, which together undercut the rate-led recovery that had anchored our prior model. 1Q confirmed the rate

pressure we had flagged, with portfolio ADR down -1.6% y/y as management leaned into volume over price to counter

aggressive competitive discounting, explicitly redirecting its commercial efforts toward occupancy rather than tariff. More

importantly, the +7% 26e ADR growth that the company had budgeted was largely founded on a concentrated surge of World

Cup tourism across its Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey corridors; with that inflow now tracking well below

expectations, the demand tailwind we were already discounting has failed to materialize. While our last update had already

moderated ADR growth to +2% for 26e, we are cutting further and now pencil in just +1% ADR growth for 26e, with 27e ADR

also trimmed on a weaker comp. We maintain our Neutral rating and Dec-26 PT of Ps6.5 on HCITY, as the optically

attractive 7.6x 26e EV/EBITDA is offset by limited near-term catalysts amid soft ADR trends, competitive discounting

in the Bajío, and labor-cost inflation; we would turn more constructive on firmer evidence of margin expansion and

asset-sale execution.

Global Data Watch (Bruce Kasman)

The fog of Warsh

• Hawkish Fed tilt increases risk of 2026 rate hikes

• Fed up, oil down generates CB cross-currents that tilt slightly dovish

• Global consumers are cooling but business sector is intact

• Next week: PMIs up in Europe; Banxico holds, NBH cuts