Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification China’s Master Plan and target: CATL the top beneficiary

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Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification China’s Master Plan and target: CATL the top beneficiary

(Hong Kong) Limited

is gaining meaningful share in HDT battery market (+5ppts to 10% YTD). Cathy Liu

(852) 2800-8629

• China's first national HDT electrification roadmap. China released a cathy.xiao.liu@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

Master Plan for HDT electrification on 12 June, setting a 40% new-energy Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

penetration target by 2030. The plan also outlines supportive measures to

accelerate adoption, including policies to expand charging and battery-

swapping infrastructure. In our view, these initiatives formalize a clearer China’s Master Plan in HDT

policy runway for HDT electrification. electrification (by 2030)

• The 40% EV penetration target may not appear aggressive, but China has • 40% new-energy penetration rate

a long track record of overachieving policy goals. For instance, the • 1.6mn new-energy HDTs (20% of HDT

government’s 2020 development plan targeted passenger NEV penetration of parc)

20% by 2025 and 50% by 2035, yet penetration had already surpassed 50% by • 3,000 HDT charging and battery-

2025. Similarly, China’s renewable energy installations have historically swapping stations

exceeded central government targets by >90% on average. Consistent with this • 80% electrification of fixed-route short-

pattern, new-energy HDT penetration rose from ~5% in 2023 to ~25% in 2025 haul freight transportation in key

and ~29% YTD (with May already reaching ~40%), putting the market within regions

striking distance of the 40% target. We therefore view the 40% HDT

• 30,000 km of zero-carbon freight corri- penetration target as a floor, rather than a ceiling, particularly as improving dors