Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 19 June 2026 – Metcash, Woolworths, Kroger, population growth

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Stocktake Australian Consumer Primer for 19 June 2026 – Metcash, Woolworths, Kroger, population growth

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

19 June 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 19 June 2026 –

Metcash, Woolworths, Kroger, population growth

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

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• Metcash FY26 result on Monday, 22 June. Metcash pre-released their FY26 bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

result on 11 May (see our view here), which was in-line with consensus, while Christina Kim

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investors had expected an earnings miss driven by weaker hardware earnings. christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

This guidance provided near-term earnings certainty which underpinned a J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

16.8% share price rally vs. pre-trading update levels (ASX200 +1.9% over the

same period). Given the result is pre-released, investors will focus on: 1) the

seven-week trading update; 2) the impact of grocery inflation over FY27 on the

Food pillar; 3) the quality of the result, as limited detail was provided in the

trading update, particularly in hardware; 4) the outlook for hardware post-

Federal Budget impact on housing investment in renovation activity and new

home construction; and 5) progress on the Retail/JV strategy in Supermarkets.

We remain Overweight rated on Metcash.

• Australian population growth stable at 1.5% in the Dec-25 quarter.

Population growth has normalised at 1.5% YoY in the Dec-25 quarter. This is

down from a peak of 2.5% in Sep-23, as net overseas migration has stabilised,

now contributing 1.1ppts of the 1.5% population growth. The trend of fewer

births has persisted, with the 1.1ppt contribution to population from births

down from the 1.3ppt contribution 10 years ago.