Survey: TAP Distributors Unplugged

研报英文原文证据摘录

Survey: TAP Distributors Unplugged

USA | Beverage, Household & Personal Care Products

Molson Coors EquityJuneResearch12, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGESurvey: TAP Distributors Unplugged

Molson Coors has grown volumes in only two of the last 13 years. Continued RATING HOLD

underperformance vs the US beer complex puts the medium-term algo at risk; PRICE $40.90^

it'll be a challenge to hit +LSD% net sales and +HSD% EPS. We surveyed Molson PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $41.00 ($43.00) | +0%

Coors' distributors for their thoughts on where the company should focus, and 52W HIGH-LOW $54.82 - $38.04

most of the ideas sounded expensive. Maintain Hold, PT to $41. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 84.2% | 142.45

MARKET CAP $7.7B

1. Tall Task Ahead: Molson Coors' portfolio continues to underperform the US beer complex TICKER TAP

(-4.6% vs -1.5% YTD; includes RTDs, FMBs, Cider, Seltzer, and Non-Alc Beer). This must reverse if ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

the business is to achieve its medium-term targets of +LSD% net sales, +MSD% underlying EBT,

and +HSD% EPS. Distributors recommend a focus on promos/discounting, fixing out-of-stocks,

occasion-based marketing, and portfolio repositioning. Our View: This is a lot to focus on, but more FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

importantly a step up in spending is required to improve results. 2026 2027 2026 2027

2. Distributors Are Cautious: They expect the category to decline 1% in '26. Similar to last summer, REV* NM NM NM NM

distributors expect unfavorable shelf space trends for Molson Coors in '26 (44% expect losses vs EBITDA <-1% -3% NM +3%

9% gains). Our View: Our '26 CC net sales estimate is at the low end of guidance (-0.6% vs -1% to

+1%). We also cut our margin assumptions, given the need to step up spending.