MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE (-) : Uphill Battle: (-) Thesis Intact Post 1Q Results | Reaffirmed FY26 Guidance Calls for Ambitious 2H Acceleration

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MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE (-) : Uphill Battle: (-) Thesis Intact Post 1Q Results | Reaffirmed FY26 Guidance Calls for Ambitious 2H Acceleration

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BEVERAGES

MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD42.4  TARGET PRICE USD36 (DOWNSIDE 15%)

Uphill Battle: (-) Thesis Intact Post 1Q Results | Reaffirmed

FY26 Guidance Calls for Ambitious 2H Acceleration

Our below-consensus ‘26-28 EPS estimates (and $36 TP) are little changed post TAP’s 1Q results11 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report (reported Apr 30th). In short, we expect (structurally skewed) demand pressures on TAP’s

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mainstream beer portfolio to persist. CEO Goyal faces an uphill battle on market share (cites ‘work

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to do’, especially in Economy and Miller Lite, but embeds ambitious share gains 2Q-4Q). Below-

Kevin Grundy Street 2Q guide (US financial vols. -6% to -9%, peak MWP costs / incentive comp / A&M) createsBNP Paribas Securities Corp1

(+1) 212 471 8129 ‘hockey-stick’ on reaffirmed FY26 guidance. We see risk to top-line guidance -1% to +1% and model

kevin.grundy@us.bnpparibas.com low-end of -11% to -15% EPS range ($4.61). At 9.5x P/E, we see risk to TAP’s multiple and

Andrew Bond consensus EPS (BNP -9% / -18% below Street 27 / 28 EPS).

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1

(+1) 212 471 8311 Better-than-Feared 1Q Helped by Phasing | Demand Issues Remain Evident | We Stay (-)

andrew.bond@us.bnpparibas.com 1Q EPS beat $0.62 vs. Street $0.35 and net sales +2% vs. Street +1% helped by timing / phasing.

Dylan Su US Beer demand remains challenged (Americas brand volume -3%), mkt share is languishing (1Q

BNP Paribas Securities Corp1 category -1.6% / market share -60 bps YoY), and consumer sentiment worsened during the quarter.

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