JP Non-Ferrous: SMM — Earnings Reset Re‑Accelerates on Copper & Gold

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JP Non-Ferrous: SMM — Earnings Reset Re‑Accelerates on Copper & Gold

Japan | Metals & Mining

Sumitomo Metal Mining EquityJuneResearch11, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEJP Non-Ferrous: SMM — Earnings Reset Re-

RATING BUYAccelerates on Copper & Gold

PRICE ¥7,743^

We revise our estimates for SMM following FY3/26 results (HERE),

¥17,000 (¥13,700) |

incorporating a stronger copper and gold outlook. We forecast FY3/27 PBT PRICE TARGET | % TO PT +120%

of ¥324bn versus company guidance of ¥229bn, with 80% of the upside 52W HIGH-LOW ¥13,300 - ¥3,300

driven by our more constructive copper assumptions and 20% from gold. FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 79.8% | 156.78

FX acts as a modest offset, trimming 6% of the upside. At current share MARKET CAP ¥2.3T | $14.0B

price levels, we believe the market is discounting copper below $10,000/t in TICKER 5713 JP

FY3/28 (vs. LME spot of ≈$13,400/t). ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Earnings outlook: Copper and gold drive a second leg of estimate upgrades on a

cleaner base. Following FY3/26 results, which confirmed a copper-led beat supported by FY (Mar) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

inventory valuation gains, we reset our forward earnings to reflect a structurally stronger 2026 2027 2026 2027

price environment and cleaner normalization in FY3/27. While company guidance of ¥229bn REV* +6% +11% NA NA

embeds conservative assumptions (copper $11,000/t, gold $4,200/oz, FX ¥155/$), we see EPS +19% +17% +12% +20%

scope for materially higher earnings with copper at $13,800/t and gold at $4,600/oz, alongside

improved operational contributions. Importantly, FY3/27 guidance represents a cleaner 2026 (¥) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY3

earnings base following the reversal of inventory effects that flattered FY3/26, making the EPS -- -- -- -- 838.10