CVNA: Updated cohort analysis; lowering GPU & target

研报英文原文证据摘录

CVNA: Updated cohort analysis; lowering GPU & target

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Brad Erickson (Analyst)

(971) 842-9607, brad.erickson@rbccm.com

Khadijah Gibson, CFA (AVP)

(347) 610-7116, khadijah.gibson@rbccm.com

Audrey Stuart (Associate)

(212) 437-9151, audrey.stuart@rbccm.com

June 11, 2026

Carvana Co. Outperform

NYSE: CVNA; USD 67.82RESEARCH Updated cohort analysis; lowering GPU & target Price Target USD 85.00 ↓ 92.00

Our view: We update our retail unit cohort model to gauge market share Scenario Analysis* gain expectations embedded into Street estimates. Our primary take is

Street's implied '26 & '27 market share gains appear a bit more aggressive Downside Current Price Upside

than prior years. Secondarily, we attempt to embed the mid-May ABS deal Scenario Price Target Scenario

into our Other GPU estimates that looked slightly less favorable vs. Q1 and 44.00 67.82 85.00 126.00

bring down our EBITDA estimates and PT to $85 (from $92). CVNA remains 35% 25% 86%

a high-quality name in our universe with open-ended secular growth, high- *Implied Total ReturnsEQUITY probability compounding earnings potential and AI-resistant scarcity value Key Statistics

amongst SMID-cap internet stocks. That said, we take the opportunity to SharesDividend:O/S (MM): 1,130.00.00 MarketYield: Cap (MM): 76,6370.0%

mute our nearer-term expectations somewhat though our longer-term Debt to Cap: 0% Enterprise Val. (MM): 99,627

view are unchanged. Avg. Daily Volume: 11,248,170

RBC Estimates

Key points: FY Dec 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E

The methodology & primary conclusions. We build up CVNA's 10 primary Revenue 13,673.0 20,322.0 27,361.5 35,813.6

annual cohorts to Street's retail unit estimates as a proxy to gauge Prev. 27,477.7 35,950.5

conservatism/ambitiousness in Street estimates.