GRGD: Checking the fit: Reiterating constructive view, PT to $107 ahead of Q1/F26

研报英文原文证据摘录

GRGD: Checking the fit: Reiterating constructive view, PT to $107 ahead of Q1/F26

Groupe Dynamite Inc.

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Compelling growth story with long and visible runway inGroupe Dynamite Inc.

NA. GRGD is a compelling SMID-cap growth-oriented women’s

120 82 Weeks 20NOV24 - 10JUN26 fashion retailer with a well-defined target market, sector-

TARGETTARGET 107.00107.00 leading, organically driven top-line growth, a disciplined and 100

80 data-driven approach to design and inventory management,

CURRENTCURRENT 66.5766.57 and a clearly articulated real estate premiumization strategy.

60 The result is sector-leading growth, profitability, FCF

40 conversion, and return metrics. GRGD has demonstrated

20 exceptional agility in navigating uncertain/volatile global

0 macro backdrops with a proven playbook of disciplined

6m 4m execution and supply chain resilience.

2m

2024 2025 2026

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Forecast ~19% top-line CAGR underpins growth algo, with

GRGD CN Rel. S&P/TSX COMP IDX MA 40 weeks modestly higher GM% and operating leverage driving

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target >20% EBITDA/EPS growth. Our forecasts are predicated on

Valuation accelerating penetration GARAGE brand and network in the

We generate our $107 PT by applying 16.5x EBITDA and 30.0x US and rising penetration of e-commerce from 19% to ~25%

EPS to our F27 forecasts. Our target multiples are broadly through 2028. Development of DYNAMITE and footprint in NA,

consistent with target multiples we apply on Aritzia (TSX:ATZ) and recent introduction of GARAGE in the UK, incremental to

reflecting traction and momentum. Based on our analysis, our forecasts, provide optionality beyond our horizon.