RBC Elements™: Ag Chemicals

研报英文原文证据摘录

RBC Elements™: Ag Chemicals

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Arun Viswanathan, CFA (Analyst)

(212) 301-1611, arun.viswanathan@rbccm.com

Adam Hamilton (AVP)

(212) 266-4099, adam.hamilton@rbccm.com

June 11, 2026

RBC Elements™: Ag ChemicalsRESEARCH RBC Crop Yield Forecast Update

Our view: We updated our RBC Elements crop yield forecast model after

the May WASDE report, and maintain our belief that Ag fundamentals

are improving, underpinned by rising direct to farm payments. Currently,

the RBC Crop Yield Forecast is expecting slightly lower yields in 2026/27

than WASDE estimates, and given ongoing generics pressure in Latam, we

continue to see challenges with FMC's earnings outlook, and CTVA could

see a slight headwind in 2026 as US planted area shifts from Corn to SoyEQUITY

by ~3-4M acres (each acre shift is $10M annual EBITDA impact). That said,

in our recent catch-up with CTVA, it noted that order books are indicating

a smaller shift from corn to soy, which could be a slight source of upside.

Given solid US Ag fundamentals and improving planted area in Latam, we

believe volumes should continue to grow at CTVA and FMC. Impacts from

geopolitical uncertainty could be a headwind, but new product benefits

should result in some 2H growth.

In collaboration with the RBC Elements team, we refresh our in-season

crop yield forecast and model for the 2026/27 planting season following

the USDA's May WASDE update. The RBC Elements team projects

2026/27 corn yield to be 176.8bu/acre vs. WASDE’s May report at

183.0bu/acre, ~3% below WASDE consensus based on RBC Elements’

predictive model utilizing historical weather and yield data. Currently,

forecasts take into account lower total production (-6% y/y), ending

stocks, and stocks/use (12.1% vs. 13.0% in 2025/26), and avg corn prices of