Givaudan SA: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Givaudan SA: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Givaudan SA (GIVN.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Sales growth (%) (%) 0.8 1.2 6.7 4.5

EBITDA Margin (%) 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Sustainable above-market top-line growth of 4- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

6% Rates cuts

FCF/Sales >12% on average over 2025-30 Value-accretive M&A Sales / 7,564

Market share gains and momentum with Moderate raw material inflation driving positive Revenue 7,341 7,803

smaller/regional customers pricing (SFr, mn) 7,537

Major wins

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Innovation acceleration 1,766

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,688 1,925 0-10% (SFr, mn) China and India Rate increases, esp Swiss bond yield 1,773

0-10% India Slower volume algorithm, incl. GLP-1

0-10% Japan acceleration, weak consumer sentiment and

0-10% MEA consumer pattern changes EBIT 1,350

0-10% Mainland China Rising capital intensity, esp non-value accretive (SFr, mn) 1,313 1,533

10-20% Latin America M&A 1,411

20-30% North America Inflation beyond pricing power

30-40% Europe ex UK Innovation slowdown 112.84

EPS

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 111.64 130.79

(SFr)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 120.61

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 64.5% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

4/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

MOST Horizon

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Quintile trends.