Givaudan SA: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Givaudan SA: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Givaudan SA (GIVN.S)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Sales growth (%) (%) 0.8 2.5 6.2 4.4

EBITDA Margin (%) 24.2 23.7 23.8 24.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Sustainable above-market top-line growth of 4- RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

6% Rates cuts

FCF/Sales >12% on average over 2025-30 Value-accretive M&A Sales / 7,661

Market share gains and momentum with Moderate raw material inflation driving positive Revenue 7,474 7,784

smaller/regional customers pricing (SFr, mn) 7,567

Major wins

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Innovation acceleration 1,817

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 1,631 1,854 0-10% (SFr, mn) China and India Rate increases, esp Swiss bond yield 1,765

0-10% India Slower volume algorithm, incl. GLP-1

0-10% Japan acceleration, weak consumer sentiment and

0-10% MEA consumer pattern changes EBIT

0-10% Mainland China Rising capital intensity, esp non-value accretive (SFr, mn) 1,311 1,516

10-20% Latin America M&A 1,406

20-30% North America Inflation beyond pricing power

30-40% Europe ex UK Innovation slowdown 108.74

EPS

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 106.03 130.79

(SFr)

View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 120.39

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 64.7% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

4/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

MOST Horizon

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Quintile trends.