J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 16 Jun 26 China Tanker Shipping; Hengrui; China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 57); Daqin Railway - A; China Utilities & Renewables Blog

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J.P. Morgan China/HK FTM 16 Jun 26 China Tanker Shipping; Hengrui; China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 57); Daqin Railway - A; China Utilities & Renewables Blog

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China/HK First to Market 16 June 2026

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China Tanker Shipping (Beatrice Lam)

Hormuz reopening back on the table; time to revisit CSET

The reported US-Iran peace agreement materially increases the probability of a Hormuz reopening and

represents the strongest signal yet that the conflict may be approaching a resolution. We believe a durable

reopening would be fundamentally positive for tanker equities (CSET H/A; 1138.HK/ 600026.CH) because it

increases the likelihood that crude purchasing activity normalizes and inventories begin rebuilding. Since

February, oil buyers have partially replaced disrupted Middle East supplies with longer-haul imports from

regions such as the US, West Africa and Brazil, helping support VLCC earnings well above historical

averages. However, the scale of crude purchases has remained below what many expected given the

magnitude of the supply disruption, with inventory drawdowns and delayed purchases absorbing part of the

adjustment. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, approximately 1.3bn barrels of supply have been

removed from the market since the conflict began, while roughly 440mn barrels have been supplied through

commercial and strategic inventory releases. In our view, reopening improves supply visibility and increases