TransDigm Group Inc Updating Estimates

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TransDigm Group Inc Updating Estimates

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

15 June 2026

TransDigm Group Inc Neutral

TDG, TDG US

Updating Estimates Price (12 Jun 26):$1,256.05

▲Price Target (Dec-26):$1,450.00

Prior (Dec-26):$1,440.00

We’re updating our TransDigm model and our estimates move higher on top-line

strength across end markets, including acceleration in the aftermarket, despite Aerospace & Defense

concerns about oil prices on TransDigm’s short-cycle exposure. This should Seth M. Seifman, CFA AC

remain a focus, along with the expectation for a return to margin expansion in FY27 (1-212) 622-5597

and capital deployment. Our Dec-26 price target of $1,450 is 30x our CY27 adj seth.m.seifman@jpmorgan.com

EPS estimate of ~$46. Rocco J Barbero

(1-212) 622-8140

• Sales trending well, especially from recent acquisitions. Mgmt pointed to rocco.j.barbero@jpmorgan.com

the core business as driving the guidance increase vs recently closed Alexander Ladd

acquisitions. Bookings exceeded shipments across comm’l OE and AM, along (1-212) 622-0077

with defense, supporting some visibility into 2H, though aftermarket is alex.ladd@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

primarily a book and ship business. Mgmt did note uncertainty around fuel

dynamics and their effect on air travel, and while there is no imapct thus far, the

overhang may affect TDG’s multiple as investors weigh potential FY27 Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Sep)

scenarios. It also appears that TDG’s recent acquisitions—Simmonds and Adj. EPS ($)

Servotronics—have been growing nicely, as organic growth in the quarter was 2024A 2025E 2026E

11.0%, while market-weighted pro forma growth was 12.2%. Q1 7.16 7.83A 8.23

Q2 7.99 9.11A 9.85

• M&A weighs on margin for now, but mgmt confident in future expansion.