J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 15 Jun 26 Peruvian Banks; LatAm Agribusiness; The J.P. Morgan View; Global Data Watch; ANFAVEA Monitor and More

研报英文原文证据摘录

J.P. Morgan LatAm FTM 15 Jun 26 Peruvian Banks; LatAm Agribusiness; The J.P. Morgan View; Global Data Watch; ANFAVEA Monitor and More

Latin America Equity Research

LatAm First to Market 15 June 2026

Top Stories

| Peruvian Banks (Yuri R Fernandes)

Downgrading BAP and IFS to Neutral – A Pause As We Wait For Government Transition

We downgrade Credicorp (BAP) and IFS from Overweight to Neutral, as risk-reward is now more balanced and we prefer to

wait for greater clarity around Peru’s political transition. The Peru outlook remains positive, but both stocks have already

rebounded meaningfully: BAP and IFS now trade at 2.5x and 1.7x P/BV, and are up ~28–32% YTD, versus Mexican banks at -

15% to +20% (USD) and Brazilian banks at -28% to +10% YTD (USD). Upside catalysts include a potential pro-market election

outcome, a supportive Congress, a stronger copper backdrop, and company-specific drivers such as Yape at BAP or consumer

growth at IFS (and BAP). That said, we also see risks not fully reflected in our numbers, including political-transition noise and

potential El Niño headwinds. We are not incorporating either the upside catalysts or these risks in our current estimates.

Accordingly, we leave our $415 YE26 target for BAP unchanged (implying ~13% upside). IFS trades at a more reasonable

~1.7x P/BV, but our US$56 target implies only ~1% total return. At the sector level, we continue to like BAP and IFS over the

long term, but in the near term we would prefer Chilean or Argentine banks—the first due to strong profitability metrics helped

by inflation, and the second on ROE recovery and improving sentiment toward the country.

LatAm Agribusiness (Lucas Ferreira)

Sao Martinho (N) & Adecoagro (UW): Sliding on Oil; We See Downside Risk to Consensus on Falling

Commodity Prices