China Tanker Shipping Hormuz reopening back on the table; time to revisit CSET

研报英文原文证据摘录

China Tanker Shipping Hormuz reopening back on the table; time to revisit CSET

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 June 2026

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China Tanker Shipping

Hormuz reopening back on the table; time to revisit

CSET

The reported US-Iran peace agreement materially increases the probability of a Infrastructure, Industrials &

Hormuz reopening and represents the strongest signal yet that the conflict may be Transport

approaching a resolution. We believe a durable reopening would be fundamentally Beatrice Lam AC

positive for tanker equities (CSET H/A; 1138.HK/ 600026.CH) because it (852) 2800-8738

increases the likelihood that crude purchasing activity normalizes and inventories beatrice.lam@jpmorgan.com

begin rebuilding. Since February, oil buyers have partially replaced disrupted Karen Li, CFA

Middle East supplies with longer-haul imports from regions such as the US, West (852) 2800-8589

Africa and Brazil, helping support VLCC earnings well above historical averages. karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.

However, the scale of crude purchases has remained below what many expected Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited

given the magnitude of the supply disruption, with inventory drawdowns and

delayed purchases absorbing part of the adjustment. According to S&P Global

Commodity Insights, approximately 1.3bn barrels of supply have been removed

from the market since the conflict began, while roughly 440mn barrels have been