India Autos: May-2026 volumes - EVs pick up, MHCVs slow down

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India Autos: May-2026 volumes - EVs pick up, MHCVs slow down

Global Markets Research

2 June 2026India Autos: May-2026 volumes

EQUITY: AUTOS & AUTO PARTS

EVs pick up, MHCVs slow down Research Analysts

India Autos & Auto Parts

MSIL, M&M and TVS ahead of our estimates, while AL, Kapil Singh - NFASL

kapil.singh@nomura.comTMCV and Hyundai below

+91 22 403 74199

May-2026 wholesale volumes: PVs +28% y-y (Nomura estimate: +24%), 2Ws +14% y-y Siddhartha Bera, CFA - NFASL

(Nomura: +10%), tractors +23% y-y (Nomura: +4%), MHCVs +4% y-y (Nomura: +9%) siddhartha.bera@nomura.com

The healthy growth momentum was sustained in PVs, 2Ws and tractors in May 2026. +91 22 403 74362

However, given the recent increase in fuel prices and inflationary conditions, we believe

demand will likely moderate in coming months. Only CV sales missed our estimates. We

have been more cautious on MHCVs as this segment is highly sensitive to changes

in economic growth momentum.

EV sales penetration in May reached ~6.4% for PVs (vs 4% in FY26) and 8.9% for

2Ws (vs ~6.5% in FY26), as demand sentiment shifted more towards EVs. EV

demand continues to gain traction [for Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV IN,

Neutral), currently 30% of its bookings are for EVs and the company plans to increase its

EV capacity by 50% as it sees strong demand]. We believe EVsareataninflection

point (Fig.5) and supportive government policies could continue to support EV

sales (link).

Most of the OEMs have mentioned about 300-400bp of cost pressure in 1QFY27E, while

price hikes so far have been 1-2%. We believe CVs and 2Ws are better placed to pass on

the cost pressure over the next six months. For PVs, the impact varies by OEMs. We

believe price hikes are likely to have a higher impact on the demand for entry segment