Norske Skog-Estimate momentum with DC optionality-06/09/2026

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Norske Skog-Estimate momentum with DC optionality-06/09/2026

Norske Skog

QUARTERLY PREVIEW | 9 JUN 2026

Estimate momentum with DC optionality Target price (NOK) 72

Saica and several other containerboard producers have announced a Share price (NOK) 44

further EUR 60/t price hike to restore margins, bringing YTD increases

to EUR ~160/t. We see this as driven mainly by mounting cost pressure,

but prolonged maintenance stops also seem to have tightened the

market through May. Penciling in half of the latest hike, we lift our 2027e

EBITDA by 8%, leaving NSKOG trading at 4x EBITDA. Beyond this,

capacity closures following the acquisition of the Papresa mill and the Forecast changes

formation of the Sappi-UPM JV pose upside risk to our publication paper % 2026e 2027e 2028e

price assumptions, which currently assume continued declines, with a Revenues (0) 1 1

potential data center transaction adding further upside. Buy reiterated, EBITDA (2) 8 7

TP NOK 72 (65). EBIT adj (10) 15 13

EPS reported (4) 16 13

CB producers not done hiking – markets tightening modestly EPS adj (66) 16 13

Mounting cost pressure drove producers to a EUR 100/t hike YTD through April, Source: Pareto Securities

but Saica and a few other majors have in recent weeks announced a further EUR

60/t increase, citing the need to restore margins. Alongside that, prolonged Ticker NSKOG.OL, NSKOG NO

maintenance stops across Europe and minor supply disruptions appear to have

Sector Pulp & Papertightened the market over the past month. Still, with ~1.3mt of new capacity set to

come online in 2026 and ~0.8mt in 2027 (~4-2% supply growth) and demand still Shares fully diluted (m) 84.8

soft, we see utilization rates above 90% as a 2028 story. As such, we pencil in half Market cap (NOKm) 3,746